In most cases, the No.1 seed almost always wins a series over a No. 8 seed. The Minnesota Timberwolves have no business moving onto the second round, but they have a chance at upsetting the Denver Nuggets.

The last time a one-seed beat an eight-seed was in 2011. In case you didn’t know, it was the Memphis Grizzlies over the San Antonio Spurs, and it just so happens that Mike Conley was part of that series.

As I said, it can happen.

This season the Timberwolves went 2-2 against the Nuggets. Karl-Anthony Towns didn’t play in any of these games, so it’ll be interesting to see how they match up against them with the two-big lineup.

• First Game: Timberwolves 124, Nuggets 111
• Second Game: Nuggets 122, Timberwolves 118
  • No Rudy Gobert or KAT
  • Wolves had the lead almost all game – Jamal Murray hit a go-ahead shot with 55 seconds remaining
• Third Game: Timberwolves 128, Nuggets 98
  • No Nikola Jokic or Murray
• Fourth Game: Nuggets 146, Timberwolves 112
  • Denver led 49-19 after the first quarter
  • D’Angelo Russell gets ejected in his last game as a Timberwolf

I think we can throw out the third game the Timberwolves won. No Jokic or Murray = automatic loss for Denver. Although, credit to Minnesota for not giving the game away like we’ve seen them do to the Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, etc.

The last game is another one we could probably forget about. This Wolves team is completely different, and it’s clear the NBA Trade Deadline had some effect on the players, namely DLo, who gave up.

The first game was pretty much a straight-up good victory by the Timberwolves. The Nuggets had their key players out there, and the Timberwolves rode a bench of Matt Ryan, Nathan Knight, Luka Garza and Austin Rivers.

The Timberwolves should have won that second game because they controlled the majority of the game and let go of the rope with a minute remaining. Minnesota also had no business winning that contest with Gobert and KAT out.

Last year, the Timberwolves went 3-1 against Denver too. For some reason, Minnesota has had the Nuggets’ number.

There are also a lot of fun storylines in this game:

Should be some high level scouting in this series

Tim Connelly obviously knows many of the Denver players VERY well.

Ryan Saunders knows the best ways to defend KAT

Looking foresees to it

— Jace frederick (@JaceFrederick) April 15, 2023

Anthony Edwards is clearly not himself, but he should feast on the Nuggets. This season he’s averaging 21.0 points per game against Denver, but his track record shows he’s usually better against them.

He will be an x-factor because the Wolves can’t solely rely on KAT. Edwards needs to get healthy and have a couple of 30-point games if they want any chance of moving on.

In the first game against the Nuggets, Minnesota made things difficult for Jokic. They put Kyle Anderson on him and had Gobert roaming. That limited Jokic to 24-9-7, which is pretty good considering how good Jokic is.

Putting KAT on Jokic might not work because of foul trouble, but they should experiment with it a couple of times.

If there was any team to run a two-big lineup on, it’s the Nuggets. They play with a ton of size, and you need to get Jokic uncomfortable inside the paint.

One of the biggest concerns with the Nuggets is their depth. Guys like Jeff Green, Zeke Nnaji, Bruce Brown, Reggie Jackson and Christian Braun are decent players, but they’re not anything to write home about.

The Nuggets’ defense is also bad, ranking 15th in the NBA. To win in the playoffs, you need a good defense, and the Nuggets don’t have that to fall back on if their offense isn’t rolling. Their best defenders are Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Aaron Gordon and Brown. That’s not enough to hold down the talent of the Timberwolves.

Minnesota owns a top-10 defense, which will be beneficial in a playoff setting.

If the Timberwolves can make Jokic uncomfortable with their size and length, then Minnesota has to like their chances. They’ve had success against them this year without KAT, and it will be interesting to see how they attack that match up with the twin towers healthy and on the floor.

Either way, it won’t be easy, but Minnesota does have a chance at winning this series.