Twins: What should we expect from Trevor Larnach this season?
The Minnesota Twins have a lot of unknown players this season because many of the guys on the roster have been slowed down by injuries. One of those players is Trevor Larnach, and if he’s fully healthy, what can we expect from him in 2023?
Larnach was a first-round pick back in the 2018 MLB Draft. He rose through the minor league system and eventually made his major league debut in 2021. When healthy, Larnach looks like a borderline All-Star.
He can hit 20+ home runs and play elite defense. Remember how valuable he was in the field before he got hurt in 2022?
Last season he saved nine runs in 331 innings. For reference: the top getters finished in the low 20s and played around 1,000 innings. You multiply Larnach’s number by three times, and he’s leading the league. That’s not how it works, but you get the idea of how good he was on defense.
Offensively, Larnach needs to work on his plate discipline. He strikes out at an alarmingly high rate.
- 2021: 34.6 K%, 10.3 BB%
- 2022: 31.7 K%, 10.0 BB%
To paint the picture better again, Miguel Sanó finished 2021 and 2022 with a K% of 34.4 and 35.2. In fact, Sanó drew more walks than Larnach.
If Larnach wants to improve as a hitter, that’s where it’ll need to come. He’s got incredible power and can tie or take over a game with one swing.
It’s tough to expect him to hit .280-300 in the big leagues, but he did hit over or a tick under .300 in every league except for Triple-A. Larnach has struggled at the plate, but if he can improve his approach, it’s not out of the question that he hits .250-260 with over 20 home runs.
Larnach is one of the most intriguing players on the Twins’ roster. There’s a reason he was drafted in the first round and has had a great minor league career. He’s got raw power and great defensive instincts, but his plate disciple and injury history have plagued him.
If he can reduce the strikeout percentage to 25 percent, Larnach should have a lot more success.
In two seasons, Larnach has played a combined 130 games. He’s spent a lot of time on the injured list, including a core muscle strain that ended his season last year.
He likely starts the year in Triple-A unless he has a great Spring Training. The Twins have too many good outfielders on the roster, and Larnach would struggle to get everyday at-bats. For a player who needs to find a rhythm and develop, getting in reps is crucial to his development.
If Larnach can play in 120-130 games, the Twins should expect a player who hits around .250 with 20+ home runs and excellent defense. However, if he struggles with injuries again, it’s tough to see where he fits into the roster in 2024. This is almost a make-or-break year for the former Oregon State star.
