Twins: Should we expect this kind of starting pitching all season?
The Minnesota Twins starting rotation ranks No. 1 in baseball in earned runs allowed (ERA) at 1.08. Should we expect this kind of dominance all season?
The Twins starting rotation was one of the worst in baseball just years ago. They went into the 2021 offseason with two starting pitchers under contract; Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. They attacked that offseason by adding Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer and trading for Sonny Gray. Gray, Ober and Ryan are solid pitchers – but not players you want to rely on to deliver a postseason appearance.
Injuries didn’t help the Twins either, as Ober spent a lot of time on the injured list, and Bundy and Ryan ended up being one of their healthiest players.
The Twins have continued to revamp their starting pitching, despite some of the prospects they have in the minor league system. Minnesota entered 2023 with one of the strongest rotations we’ve seen from them in years.
- Pablo López
- Sonny Gray
- Joe Ryan
- Tyler Mahle
- Kenta Maeda
Getting Maeda back is a luxury for Minnesota. Before getting injured, Maeda finished second in 2020 in the AL CY Young race. It’s hard to imagine he delivers a lot of dominant performances, given he’s 35 and coming off Tommy John surgery. He’s not your No.1 starter anymore, and the Twins slotting him in as the fifth starter is something many teams wish they had.
The Twins don’t need him to be that 2020 version of himself, but they’ll take it every other or every third start. Even if they decide to move him to the bullpen, the Twins have plenty of options. They can call up Ober, who just had a great Spring Training and has shown us flashes in the past. They could also call up the likes of Louie Varland or Simeon Woods Richardson.
Trading Luis Arraez hurts, but López looks like a No. 1 starter and a guy you feel comfortable starting in a Game 1 scenario. That’s something the Twins haven’t had in a long time. In two starts, the 27-year-old has an ERA of 0.73, has struck out 16 batters, walked four and only surrendered five hits.
Gray, for the most part, is a reliable pitcher, but he often finds himself with a high pitch count by the fifth inning. He also struggles a third time through the lineup, and that’s resulted in a few too many short outings.
Ryan has the tools to be a No. 2 or 3 starter, but he’s likely a 3 at best. He improved his slider and added a new pitch this offseason in hopes of improving his secondary stuff. The fastball plays and stats back that up, but Ryan will struggle against the likes of the New York Yankees, Houston Astros or Tampa Bay Rays if he can’t unlock his offspeed pitches.
That leaves us with Mahle, another former Cincinnati Reds pitcher the Twins have traded for. It seems like the Twins should just keep trading for pitchers, instead of developing them because they clearly have struggled to do so with almost every guy in the system.
Mahle has Opening Day stuff, but injuries are a concern. After the Twins traded for him, he spent the majority of his second half of the season on the IL. After a healthy offseason and a new head athletic trainer, the Twins hope to be adding that dominant pitcher they were trading for in a Reds uniform. Mahle’s statistics are deceiving because he struggled at Great American Ball Park but pitched well on the road.
Now he’s pitching at Target Field, which is a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Other than López , Mahle is probably their second-best pitcher, and he’s lining up every fourth day.
It’s early days, but the Twins starting rotation has been the best in baseball. We’ll see how they hold up when they face better lineups or when they’re calling up guys because of injuries. They have the depth in the minor leagues, but these five guys made the Opening Day rotation for a reason.
It’s unlikely we see Chris Paddack make a start this year, but he’s another guy to consider when talking about how good this Twins rotation is.
Minnesota has the talent, and if their offense starts to catch fire consistently, then we have to start talking about the Twins being a World Series contender.
