Twins: The Luis Arraez trade is a win, but the pressure to win on the field is much higher
As the 2022 season was coming to an end, Minnesota Twins fans didn’t have a lot to root for. Injuries plagued the Twins’ season, and they went from playing for the division title to playing for lottery odds. Among the few intriguing storylines was Luis Arraez and the quest to win the American League Batting Title.
Last year Arraez, a fan favorite, was voted into his first All-Star Game and won the AL Batting Title. Many believed he was a core piece for the Twins to build around, but as the offseason progressed, it was clear the team was looking to move him for starting pitching.
Now it’s done, and while the Twins are a better team for it, the morale of the fans has taken a hit.
With Arraez being moved for starting pitcher Pablo López and two prospects, the Twins have removed possibly the most fun player from a largely unlikeable team last season. This comes after a year with a record-low attendance at Target Field, putting even more pressure on the team to win and bring the fans back.
The Twins clearly won the trade in terms of player value
If you ignore the emotional side of things and look at who won the trade based on value, it’s clearly the Twins. Arraez was an All-Star and a batting champion in 2022, but that is likely his ceiling. He’s an easy player to overvalue because of his old-school approach, but the extreme lack of power and defensive limitations are real concerns.
Before we get to López, the headliner in the trade, the Marlins included two prospects. One of the prospects was shortstop Jose Salas, a top-100 prospect in baseball, according to Baseball Prospectus. The other prospect was outfielder Byron Chourio, someone the Twins are high on and a nice third player in a trade like this. López for Arraez straight up would have been an interesting debate, but this is a clear win in terms of value for Minnesota.
López is under team control through 2024 and will be an extremely stable, above-average pitcher in the Twins rotation. He’s not an ace, but he adds to an already deep rotation, with the upside of becoming a fringe No. 1 starter. Here’s what a potential Opening Day rotation could look like:
- Sonny Gray
- Pablo López
- Tyler Mahle
- Joe Ryan
- Bailey Ober/Kenta Maeda
Behind them are guys like Josh Winder, Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson. It’s refreshing to have guys at the back of the rotation with upside, rather than Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer.
The Twins have the players to replace Arraez if they stay healthy.
Replacing the production of Arraez in the lineup will be difficult, but the Twins are betting on the health of Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis to do most of the heavy lifting.
Both players have unbelievable upside, but it’s fair to wonder if we’ll ever see it. Kirilloff has dealt with a lingering wrist injury that’s derailed him for a couple of years, and Lewis showed he was ready for the majors last season but is recovering from his second torn ACL injury.
If things break right, the Twins could have one of the most fun infield groups in baseball. Jose Miranda at third, Carlos Correa at short, Jorge Polanco at second and Kirlloff at first is an awesome group on paper. They also have Nick Gordon, Kyle Farmer and Lewis as depth.
In the end, the Twins got better, and it’s time to win. No excuses
With the dust settling on the trade, the Twins have a new starting pitcher that cracks a potential playoff rotation. To make that happen, the beloved Arraez had to be traded away. After one of the most unlikeable seasons in recent history, a lot rides on the 2023 Twins.
It’s still too early to put Derek Falvey on the hot seat, but this is a huge season for his future. Ownership will be watching the attendance numbers after seeing fans tune out last season. One thing is for certain: winning solves everything. If the Twins are good again, fans will come out to Target Field. This trade increases the Twins’ chances to win in 2023 in a crucial year for the morale of the fanbase.
